Predicting the potential worldwide distribution of Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios


  • Sanad H. Ragab Department of Zoology and Entomology, Faculty of Science, Al-Azhar University, Nasr city, Cairo, Egypt
  • Michael G. Tyshenko Risk Sciences International Ottawa, Canada



Mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti, Prediction, R Package, Climate change


Background: Climate change is one of the most important factors associated with medically important insect pests such as mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae). Diseases spread by mosquitoes are increasing due to changes in global temperature and weather patterns that are altering vector host ranges allowing spread into new regions. Zika, dengue fever, chikungunya and yellow fever are arboviral infections that are spread by Aedes aegypti (Culicidae). The objective of the current research is to study the potential geographic distribution habitats of Ae. aegypti in the world under current and future climate conditions.

Methods: Data of Ae. aegypti was obtained from the global biodiversity information facility and used 19 bioclimatic layers (bio01-bio19) and elevation from the WorldClim database. The scenarios used are the Beijing climate center climate system model (BCC-CSM2-MR) and the institute Pierre-Simon Laplace, coupled model intercomparison project (IPSL-CM6A-LR) with two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) for each of the general circulation model (GCMs): SSP126 and SSP585.

Results: The results revealed that altitude, temperature, seasonality (standard deviation *100) (bio4), and annual precipitation (bio12) were the most important environmental variables that affect the distribution of Ae. aegypti.

Conclusions: The models showed that Africa and South America maintained very high and excellent habitat suitability for Ae. Aegypti under the current potential distribution map.


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