Predicting the potential worldwide distribution of Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios
Keywords:Mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti, Prediction, R Package, Climate change
Background: Climate change is one of the most important factors associated with medically important insect pests such as mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae). Diseases spread by mosquitoes are increasing due to changes in global temperature and weather patterns that are altering vector host ranges allowing spread into new regions. Zika, dengue fever, chikungunya and yellow fever are arboviral infections that are spread by Aedes aegypti (Culicidae). The objective of the current research is to study the potential geographic distribution habitats of Ae. aegypti in the world under current and future climate conditions.
Methods: Data of Ae. aegypti was obtained from the global biodiversity information facility and used 19 bioclimatic layers (bio01-bio19) and elevation from the WorldClim database. The scenarios used are the Beijing climate center climate system model (BCC-CSM2-MR) and the institute Pierre-Simon Laplace, coupled model intercomparison project (IPSL-CM6A-LR) with two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) for each of the general circulation model (GCMs): SSP126 and SSP585.
Results: The results revealed that altitude, temperature, seasonality (standard deviation *100) (bio4), and annual precipitation (bio12) were the most important environmental variables that affect the distribution of Ae. aegypti.
Conclusions: The models showed that Africa and South America maintained very high and excellent habitat suitability for Ae. Aegypti under the current potential distribution map.
Monath, T. P. The Arboviruses: Epidemiology and Ecology. Boca Raton: CRC Press. 1988.
Lai CH, Tung KC, Ooi HK, Wang JS. Competence of Aedes albopictus and Culex quinquefasciatus as vector of Dirofilaria immitis after blood meal with different microfilarial density. Vet Parasitol. 2000;90:231-7.
Diamond, M. S. West Nile Encephalitis Virus Infection Viral Pathogenesis and the Host Immune Response. New York: Springer. 2009.
El-Bahnasawy MM, Khalil HH, Morsy AT, Morsy TA. Threat of dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever to Egypt from travelers. J Egypt Soc Parasitol. 2011;41(2):289-306.
Mostafa AA, Allam K, Osman M. Mosquito species and their densities in some Egyptian Governorates. J Egypt Soc Parasitol. 2002;32(1):9-20.
Morsy TA. Aedes aegypti and dengue virus infections. J Egypt Soc Parasitol. 2018;48(1):183-96.
WHO. Guidelines for Dengue Surveillance and Control. 2nd Edition, WHO Library Cataloguing in Publication Data, Geneva, Switzerland. 2003. Available at: https://cdn.centreinfection.ca/wp/sites/2/20170307163055/RapidReviewClimateMosquito-EN.pdf. Accessed on 25 April, 2023.
Canyon DV, Speare R, Burkle FM. Forecasted impact of climate change on infectious disease and health security in Hawaii by 2050. Disaster Med. Public Health Prep. 2016;10(6):797-804.
Rockl€ov J, Dubrow R. Climate change: an enduring challenge for vector-borne disease prevention and control. Nat Immunol. 2020;21(5):479-83.
Metcalf CJE, Walter KS, Wesolowski A, Buckee CO, Shevliakova E, Tatem AJ et al. Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead. Proc Biol Sci. 2017;284(1860):20170901.
Caminade C, McIntyre KM, Jones AE. Impact of recent and future climate change on vector-borne diseases. Ann. N Y Acad Sci. 2019;1436(1):157-73.
Paz S. Effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases: An updated focus on West Nile virus in humans. Emerg. Top Life Sci. 2019;3(2):143-52.
Ludwig A, Zheng H, Vrbova L, Drebot MA, Iranpour M, Lindsay LR. Increased Risk of Endemic Mosquito-Borne Diseases in Canada Due to Climate Change. Canada Communicable Dis Rep. 2019;45:91-7.
Wudel B, Shadabi E. Mosquito-Borne Disease in the Americas. Rapid Review NCCID. 2016. Available at: https://nccid.ca/wp-content/uploads/sites/ 2/2016/07/RapidReviewClimateMosquito-EN.pdf. Accessed on 20 April, 2023.
Nooten SS, Andrew NR, Hughes, L. Potential impacts of climate change on insect communities: a transplant experiment. PloS One. 2014;9:e85987.
Reiter P. Climate change and mosquito-borne disease. Environ. Health Perspect. 2001;109:141-61.
Hales S, De Wet N, Maindonald J, Woodward A. Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: An empirical model. Lancet. 2002;360(9336):830-34.
Ogden NH, St-Onge L, Barker IK, Brazeau S, Bigras-Poulin M, Charron DF et al. Risk maps for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector, Ixodesscapularis, in Canada now and with climate change. Int J Health Geogr. 2008;22;7:24.
Brownstein, J. S., Holford, T. R., Fish, D. Effect of climate change on Lyme disease risk in North America. EcoHealth. 2005;2(1):38e46.
Gonzalez C, Wang O, Strutz SE, Gonzalez-Salazar C, Sanchez-Cordero V, Sarkar S. Climate change and risk of Leishmaniasis in North America: predictions from ecological niche models of vector and reservoir species. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2010;4(1):e585.
Loetti V, Schweigmann NJ, Burroni NE. Temperature effects on the immature development time of Culex eduardoi Casal and Garcia (Diptera: Culicidae). Neotrop Entomol. 2011;40(1):138-42.
Debat V, Begin M, Legout H, David JR. Allometric and nonallometric components of Drosophila wing shape respond differently to developmental temperature. Evolution. 2003;57(12):2773-84.
Gunay F, Alten B, Ozsoy ED. Narrow sense heritability of body size and its response to different developmental temperatures in Culex quinquefasciatus (Say 1923). J Vector Ecol. 2011;36(2):348-54.
Beck J. Predicting climate change effects on agriculture from ecological niche modeling: who profits, who loses? Climate Change. 2025;116:177-89.
Bosso L, Rebelo H, Garonna AP, Russo D. Modelling geographic distribution and detecting conservation gaps in Italy for the threatened beetle Rosalia alpina. J Nat Conserv. 2013;21:72-80.
Zhu G, Liu G, Bu W, Lis J. A. Geographic distribution and niche divergence of two stinkbugs, Parastrachia japonensis and Parastrachia nagaensis. J Insect Sci. 2013;13(1):102.
Guisan A, Thuiller W, Zimmermann NE. Habitat Suitability and Distribution Models: With Applications in R, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK. 2017.
Araújo MB, Pearson RG, Thuiller W, Erhard M. Validation of species–climate impact models under climate change. Glob Change Biol. 2005;11:1504-13.
ESRI (Environmental Systems Research Institute). ArcGIS®Desktop Help 10.3 Geostatistical Analyst. Available at: https://desktop.arcgis.com/en/arcmap/10.3. Accessed on 1 September, 2022).
Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis AJ. Very high-resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol. 2005;25:1965-78.
Yi YJ, Zhou Y, Cai YP, Yang W, Li ZW, Zhao X. The influence of climate change on an endangered riparian plant species: The root of riparian Homonoia. Ecol Ind. 2018;92:40-50.
Naimi B, Araújo MB. A reproducible and extensible R platform for species distribution modelling. Ecography. 2016;39:368-75.
Naimi B. Uncertainty Analysis for Species Distribution Models. R Package version 1.1-15. R Doc. 2015. Available at: http//www.rdocumentation.org/packages/usdm. Accessed on 25 April, 2023.
Clements AN. The Biology of Mosquitoes, vol. 1, Development, Nutrition and Reproduction. CABI Publishing. 1992. Available at: www.cabi.org/bookshop/book/9780851993744 . Accessed on 25 April, 2023.
Alto BW, Juliano SA. Precipitation and temperature effects on populations of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae): Implications for range expansion. J Med Entomol. 2001;38:646-56.
Rios M. Climate change and vector‐borne viral diseases potentially transmitted by transfusion. ISBT Sci Ser. 2009;4(1):87-94.
Reisen WK, Fang Y, Martinez VM. Effects of temperature on the transmission of West Nile virus by Culex tarsalis (Diptera: Culicidae). J Med Entomol. 2014;43(2):309-17.
Naish S, Dale P, Mackenzie JS, McBride J, Mengersen K, Tong S. Climate change and dengue: A critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches. BMC Infect. Dis. 2014;14:167.
Tran BL, Tseng WC, Chen CC, Liao SY. Estimating the threshold effects of climate on dengue: a case study of Taiwan. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health. 2020;17(4):1392.
Costa E, Santos E, Correia J, Albuquerque C. Impact of small variations in temperature and humidity on the reproductive activity and survival of Aedes aegypti (Diptera, Culicidae). R.B.E. 2010;54:488-93.
Carrington LB, Armijos MV, Lambrechts L, Barker CM, Scott TW. Effects of fluctuating daily temperatures at critical thermal extremes on Aedes aegypti life-history traits. PLoS One. 2013;8:e58824.
Winokur OC, Main BJ, Nicholson J, Barker CM. Impact of temperature on the extrinsic incubation period of Zika virus in Aedes aegypti. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2020;14:1-15.
Kamal M, Kenawy MA, Rady MH, Khaled S, Samy AM. Mapping the global potential distributions of two arboviral vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus under changing climate. PLoS One. 2018;13:e0210122.
Iwamura T, Guzman-holst A, Murray KA. Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change. Nat Commun. 2020;11:1-10.
Ryan SJ, Carlson CJ, Mordecai EA, Johnson LR. Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2019;13(3):e0007213.
Fan JC, Liu QY. Potential impacts of climate change on dengue fever distribution using RCP scenarios in China. Adv Clim Chang Res. 2019;10:1-8.
Khan SU, Ogden NH, Fazil AA, Gachon PH, Dueymes GU, Greer AL, Ng V. Current and Projected Distributions of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus in Canada and the US. Environ Health Perspect. 2020;128(5):057007.
Pörtner HO, Roberts DC, Adams H, Adler C, Aldunce P, Ali E, Begum RA et al. Climate change 2022: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Contribution of working group ii to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. 2022. Available at: https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf. Accessed on 21 April, 2023.
Facchinelli L, Badolo A, McCall PJ. Biology and Behaviour of Aedes aegypti in the Human Environment: Opportunities for Vector Control of Arbovirus Transmission. Viruses. 2023;15(3):636.