A multiple decrement analysis for studying the patterns of mortality in Bangladesh


  • Aziza Sultana Rosy Sarkar Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, Bangladesh
  • Md. Nurul Islam Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, Bangladesh




Communicable diseases, Non-communicable diseases, Injuries and miscellaneous diseases, Multiple decrement table analysis


Background: The effect of mortality on population structures is to reduce the component of the population in which the mortality occurs. The purpose of this analysis was to examine the probability patterns of deaths in 2000, 2004, and 2008 year by age due to a cause of death in presence of all causes to identify the main causes of disease those influence the mortality rate.

Methods: Data were collected from the health and demographic surveillance system of ICDDR, B. Patterns of mortality were examined by multiple decrement life table and line diagram.  

Results: The conditional probabilities of deaths from specific cause Dα (α=1, 2, 3, 4), naqαx (α=1, 2, 3, 4) of Matlab males by different years provide that for age <1, the female trends show the same pattern like male except maternal complications. For the age group 1-39, nearly injury and miscellaneous related causes affect most specially by drowning and accident for male. After the age 40, roughly the highest values of density function indicate non-communicable cause. For female, before age 40, mixed causes influence deaths, neonatal and maternal, communicable, injuries and miscellaneous causes. But after the age 40, more or less non-communicable disease is the leading cause in the year 2008.

Conclusions: Death from non-communicable diseases was found to be higher for males than females. Policies aimed at increasing governmental and non-governmental services shall generally contribute to a reduction of non-communicable death rates.


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